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What Should Operators Do About the Apple Television?

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As cable, satellite, and telco TV operators consider the impact of a potential Apple television, they should not be sanguine about the potential of such a device to dramatically change which operators gain and lose customers.

As we discussed previously, we think if Apple releases a TV it will do so in partnership with one or more traditional video operators, much like it released the iPhone in partnership with selected mobile operators.  Peter Misek at Jefferies believes prototype versions are already in the labs at AT&T and Verizon in the U.S. and Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom in Europe.  He also thinks Time Warner Cable may be working with Apple.

Impact of iPhone on Wireless Operators

The U.S. wireless market may be an instructive analog for what could happen in pay TV.  As the head of smartphone software portfolio strategy for Motorola’s handset division in 2008 and 2009, I got to see firsthand how Apple changed that market.

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Innovation in Internet TV

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A client asked us a few days ago for our thoughts on Aereo, the internet TV start-up that delivers “broadcast” TV to Apple iPads, iPhones, iPod Touches, and—used with one of those devices and an Apple TV or Roku set-top box—regular televisions.

Aereo also offers a network-based DVR, so users can record the shows they want to see and watch them anytime they like.  And, because Aereo uses an iDevice as the primary user interface, users can search for content by typing on the on-screen keyboard.  The service costs $12 per month after a three-month free trial.  (Aereo is only available in New York City for now, so you may have to wait to try it.)

The request for a comment on Aereo is a good opportunity to highlight what we think is happening with the internet TV more broadly.

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Kicking Off Solar Installation Effectiveness Project

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Note — This project is now complete. See the output here.

Woodlawn Associates is seeking sponsors for a syndicated research project, Solar Installation Effectiveness, examining the average installation cost of residential solar installers in the United States.

The primary goals of the project are to help our sponsors understand (a) how their own solar installation cost compares with the industry and (b) what they can do to make their operations more efficient.  By “installation cost,” we mean the total cost a solar installation company occurs between the time it signs a contract with a consumer and when resulting system is fully commissioned and interconnected.

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Determining Sample Size

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Developing proprietary insight often requires doing primary research.  We are often asked how we determine the sample size necessary for such research.

Larger sample sizes usually require higher cost. Therefore, we want to use the minimum sample size that will provide a useful answer.  When the costs of being wrong are very high, it may be worth the cost of a large sample size to achieve very high confidence in the answer.  For example, if a client is considering a $400 million investment whose success depends on the true value of a particular variable, she is likely to be willing to spend a fair amount to be highly confident in an estimate of that variable.

In other cases, limits on the resources available may require smaller sample sizes.  However, when we know very little to begin with even a relatively small sample can achieve significant reductions in uncertainty.  This reduction in uncertainty can be worth far more than the cost of obtaining a modest sample.

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Apple Television Set Unlikely to be Solo Effort

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Many rumors suggest Apple is developing a television.  Journalists report Apple has held talks to secure content for such a device, that suppliers are getting ready to build it, and that consumers would snap it up (see The Wall Street Journal, Techcrunch, and Wired).

The speculation often suggests that an Apple television set would offer subscription-based, à la carte content delivered over the top of broadband networks (“OTT”).  Consumers would pay one bill—to Apple—for all their video content.

Undoubtedly Apple is looking into all the possibilities, but we think the rumor mill has a few things wrong.

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